UPDATE: Senator Mike McGuire has officially announced his candidacy for Congress, igniting a political storm in Marin County just hours ago. McGuire, who is set to exit the state Legislature due to term limits by December 2026, sees this as a prime opportunity following the recent passage of Proposition 50, which has altered California’s congressional landscape.
The new congressional map now includes a district specifically designed to favor Democrats, with District 1 centered around Santa Rosa and extending into Mendocino County, the Sacramento Valley, and beyond. Political analysts view this district as a perfect fit for McGuire, who currently represents much of the area in the state Senate. According to political scientist David McCuan, McGuire is now the “instant favorite and frontrunner” in this race.
This announcement has triggered a wave of reactions among local politicians. Damon Connolly, currently serving as District 12 Assemblyman, has already declared his intention to run for McGuire’s Senate seat. Connolly, who previously served on the Marin County Board of Supervisors, faces a growing roster of challengers, including Marin County Supervisor Eric Lucan and Corte Madera Councilmember Eli Beckman.
As the political landscape shifts, multiple candidates have stepped forward for the Assembly seat, reflecting a deepening competition. Connolly’s campaign finance reports indicate he had raised over $338,000 by the end of September, positioning him as a formidable candidate. Meanwhile, Lucan leads the fundraising race with over $222,000 collected.
The urgency of these developments is palpable. With the special election for Proposition 50 concluded, candidates are now intensifying their campaigns. Connolly noted, “It’s a strong field, and I appreciate the energy everyone is bringing to the campaign.” The race is expected to heat up as the end of the year approaches, with candidates making last-minute pushes for funding and support.
Several other candidates are also making their presence known, including Eryn Cervantes, a San Quentin prison counselor and the only Republican in the race, and Jackie Elward, a Rohnert Park council member. Both ran unsuccessfully for the District 12 seat in the March 2024 primary but are back in the fray, adding to the competitive atmosphere.
The impact of McGuire’s exit is already felt as political calculations unfold across Marin. With more than half of the Legislature set to be termed out by 2026, the stakes are higher than ever. McCuan emphasized that the ongoing effects of term limits are beginning to change the dynamics of California politics.
As the political clock ticks down to the June primary, all eyes will be on how these candidates position themselves and the strategies they employ to secure their political futures. The race for the new congressional seat is shaping up to be one of significant importance, not only for the candidates involved but for the constituents they aim to represent.
Stay tuned for further updates as this story develops. The political landscape in California is changing rapidly, and the upcoming months promise to be pivotal for all parties involved.
