UPDATE: Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is weighing the option of dissolving the House of Representatives as early as this Friday, potentially leading to a general election slated for mid-February. Reports indicate rising tensions, with opposition parties and factions within her ruling coalition expressing strong disapproval of the timing, which they argue could derail critical discussions on the 2026 fiscal year budget.
The proposed dissolution comes as the regular Diet session convenes this Friday. Takaichi has not made any public comments regarding the dissolution as she remains focused on other matters, including an upcoming meeting with South Korean President Lee Jae-myung on Tuesday and Wednesday. She is also scheduled to visit a temple in Nara Prefecture during this trip. Notably, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni will be visiting Japan later this week, further complicating the political landscape.
Insiders report that Takaichi’s advisors are advocating for an early dissolution, citing favorable cabinet approval ratings which they believe the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) could leverage to secure a majority. However, key figures within the party, including Deputy President Taro Aso, are expressing cautious support for the move, contrasting with their earlier hesitance.
If the lower house is dissolved on Friday, Japanese media speculate two potential election schedules: a campaign launch on January 27 with voting on February 8, or a launch on February 3 with voting on February 15. Both scenarios risk pushing budget deliberations into March, raising concerns about delays in approving the fiscal 2026 budget.
Opponents, including Yuichiro Tamaki, leader of the Democratic Party for the People, have warned that their support could be withheld if prior agreements regarding the income tax threshold are not honored. Additionally, Komeito leader Tetsuo Saito criticized the dissolution plan, suggesting it would create a political vacuum during an economic downturn.
As the situation develops, leaders from several opposition parties are preparing for an election, insisting the government should prioritize pressing economic issues like inflation. In a proactive move, Japan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications has instructed local election commissions to start preparations for the potential election.
This unfolding political drama could result in a historically compressed campaign period, marking a significant moment in Japan’s political landscape. Stay tuned for updates as this story develops.
