UPDATE: Black Friday is set to kick off the holiday shopping season amidst growing economic uncertainty, with consumer confidence falling this month. As shoppers prepare for the biggest sales event of the year on November 24, 2023, analysts are closely monitoring spending habits that could define the retail landscape.
Retailers are adapting to a transformed shopping environment where midnight store openings and chaotic in-store brawls are relics of the past. Instead, online shopping and pre-Thanksgiving discounts dominate the scene, but the day after Thanksgiving still attracts the highest foot traffic in U.S. stores.
A recent report from The Conference Board reveals that consumer confidence has taken a hit due to factors like the recent federal government shutdown and persistent inflation. Many shoppers, however, remain willing to spend on key occasions, indicating a potential holiday halo effect. “Consumers have been saying the economy is terrible while continuing to spend for years now,” said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, regarding shoppers’ sentiments heading into this Black Friday.
Despite broader economic concerns, foot traffic is reportedly up at major shopping centers. At the Mall of America in Bloomington, Minnesota, traffic has surpassed pre-pandemic levels, with marketing officer Jill Renslow stating, “We’re seeing a very positive start to the holiday season.” Retailers are eager for the boost Black Friday provides, especially as many have already reported a surge in online sales.
From November 1 to November 23, consumers spent an impressive $79.7 billion online, reflecting a 7.5% increase from last year, according to Adobe Analytics. This growth outpaced Adobe’s forecast of 5.3% for the season. Meanwhile, Mastercard SpendingPulse anticipates a 3.6% increase in holiday sales from November 1 through December 24, slightly less than last year’s 4.1% rise.
This year’s shopping trends indicate that consumers are becoming more selective with their spending. Mastercard Chief Economist Michelle Meyer noted, “Clearly, there’s uncertainty. Consumers feel on edge, but at the moment, it doesn’t seem like it’s changing how they are showing up for this season.”
For those looking for the best deals, Adobe Analytics suggests that Thanksgiving Day offers the deepest discounts on sporting goods, while Black Friday is optimal for purchasing TVs, toys, and appliances. Notably, Cyber Monday is expected to deliver the best prices for apparel and computers, with discounts projected to reach 25% off during that period.
As Black Friday approaches, shoppers are encouraged to strategize their purchases wisely. With retailers keen to attract consumers amid economic volatility, the stakes are high for both shoppers and businesses. Stay tuned for further updates as the holiday shopping frenzy unfolds.
