A new global analysis indicates that the incidence of psoriasis, a chronic inflammatory skin condition, is expected to increase significantly by 2050. The study, spearheaded by Linli Liu, MD, from the department of dermatology at Suining Central Hospital in China, highlights how the growing prevalence of this condition will affect diverse demographic groups, including various age cohorts, sexes, and geographic regions.
Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021, the research team projected an increase in psoriasis cases worldwide, emphasizing the need for a deeper understanding of how these variations can inform public health strategies. “Understanding these variations is critical for informing public health strategies, improving health care access, and supporting early diagnosis worldwide,” Liu and her coauthors stated.
The analysis incorporated data from 236 countries collected between 1990 and 2021, focusing on disease incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). By employing an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, the researchers forecasted age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) with a 95% prediction interval. This approach allowed them to assess the impact of factors like age, sex, and geographic location on psoriasis burden.
Moderate Increases in Incidence Rates
The findings reveal a moderate rise in disease burden from 1990 to 2021. Specifically, ASIR increased among male patients from 56.89 to 62.77 cases per 100,000, marking a 10.3% increase. For female patients, the increase was from 57.08 to 61.26 cases per 100,000, a 7.3% rise. The projections indicate that by 2050, approximately 70 per 100,000 men and 66 per 100,000 women are expected to be living with psoriasis.
Liu and her team conducted a sensitivity analysis by removing the 2021 data point to evaluate the robustness of their model. This analysis indicated that the projected ASIR for males might flatten, leading to broader prediction intervals, while the trajectory for females remained relatively unchanged.
Geographic Disparities in Psoriasis Burden
The study also identified significant geographic disparities in the prevalence of psoriasis. Regions such as East Asia and sub-Saharan Africa reported notably lower disease estimates, a finding the authors suggest may be influenced by limited data availability and potential under-diagnosis. In contrast, Western Europe and North America exhibited the highest crude incidence and prevalence rates.
Among children and adolescents aged 5 to 19 years, incidence rates were found to be similar for boys and girls. However, the condition’s incidence increased markedly with age among male subjects, particularly in older cohorts. A strong positive relationship between ASIR and the Sociodemographic Index (SDI) was also established (P < .001), indicating that higher-income regions bear a greater burden of the disease. The analysis concluded that the global burden of psoriasis has risen significantly between 1990 and 2021 and is expected to continue its upward trajectory through 2050. While the modeling study aligns with previously available data, the exclusion of 2021 raised questions about the factors driving sex-specific differences. The researchers noted that understanding these factors is essential for effective public health planning. Overall, Liu and her colleagues' findings illuminate the increasing impact of psoriasis on a global scale, particularly in high-income regions. The correlation between ASIR and SDI reflects prior studies, although the authors pointed out that country-level GBD data may not fully account for various ecological confounders, such as data availability and demographic composition.
