A recent report from the prominent think tank, The Atlantic Council, recommends that the 5,000 U.S. Marines currently stationed in Okinawa should remain there, rather than relocate to Guam. The report, published on February 2, 2024, argues that the Marine facilities in Guam, which cost approximately $6.2 billion to develop, could be better utilized for Army deployments.
The report’s authors, including a lieutenant colonel in the Marine Corps, emphasize that having Marines stationed in Okinawa is crucial for deterring potential conflicts with China, particularly regarding Taiwan. They assert that relocating the Marines to Guam would place them too far from the conflict zone, undermining U.S. military readiness in the region. This perspective aligns with comments made by Marine Corps Commandant Gen. Eric Smith, who expressed concerns about the relocation strategy last year.
The Atlantic Council’s findings come as the U.S. military continues to navigate complex geopolitical tensions in the Western Pacific. The report suggests that the original U.S.-Japan Defense Policy Review Initiative (DPRI), established in 2006, needs to be revisited. This initiative was designed to reduce the U.S. military presence in Okinawa due to longstanding political pressures. The report highlights that, despite delays, the relocation of Marines has become even more pressing as China expands its influence in the region.
The authors argue that moving Marines from Okinawa would contradict U.S. strategic interests, as it would provide Chinese military planners with an advantage. They note that the Marines’ rapid deployment capabilities are vital in the context of the First Island Chain, which includes Okinawa.
Economic Considerations and Political Dynamics
The report also addresses the economic implications of the proposed relocation and suggests that more incentives may be needed to gain local support in Okinawa. Ideas include potential exemptions from tariffs imposed during the Trump administration, aimed at boosting trade and economic growth in the Japanese prefecture.
Negotiations regarding the Marine relocation are expected to be challenging, particularly given the complex political landscape in Okinawa, which has long been marked by opposition to U.S. military bases. The report emphasizes the importance of U.S. security commitments, including nuclear defense assurances to Japan, as a means to facilitate negotiations.
Additionally, the report advocates for keeping Marine Corps Air Station Futenma operational, despite ongoing discussions about its closure. The authors argue that the base’s capabilities could benefit both U.S. forces and Japanese Self-Defense Forces. They call for a reassessment of the decision to close the base, highlighting a decline in military crime rates on Okinawa, which counters some historical arguments for relocating U.S. forces.
Implications for Guam and Local Perspectives
The Atlantic Council’s report raises questions about the future role of Guam in U.S. military strategy. It suggests that facilities already built in Guam could be repurposed for the Army, which is seeking to increase its presence in the Pacific. The report notes that Army units could operate from Guam, positioning themselves strategically outside the range of many Chinese missile systems.
Local voices, such as Robert Underwood, chairman of the Pacific Center for Island Security and a former delegate to Congress, view the report as indicative of serious considerations in Washington regarding the Marines’ future in Okinawa. Underwood points out that the ongoing uncertainties surrounding military relocations may further complicate the situation in Guam, particularly regarding the Camp Blaz facility, which has sparked environmental and cultural concerns due to its construction over historically significant sites.
The report acknowledges economic considerations for Okinawa but notes a lack of similar dialogue concerning Guam. Underwood emphasizes the need for local leaders to actively engage in discussions about the Marine relocation to ensure that community voices are heard and that accurate information is disseminated.
As discussions about the future of U.S. military presence in the region continue, the Atlantic Council’s report serves as a critical analysis of the strategic, economic, and political factors at play. The implications of these recommendations will likely shape U.S. military policy and regional stability in the years to come.
