UPDATE: The political landscape in Texas is shifting dramatically as immigration enforcement takes center stage in the upcoming elections. With federal data showing a sharp decline in border crossings, candidates are ramping up rhetoric around immigration enforcement just months ahead of the March 3, 2025 primary.
Mario Guerrero, a prominent construction leader in Edinburg, revealed his support for Donald Trump in the 2024 race, citing an “insane” spike in border crossings under the previous administration. However, he now faces disruptions due to federal construction-site raids that have left workers anxious and businesses struggling. “The whole workforce, whether people have proper documentation or not, they’re all scared,” Guerrero stated, highlighting the immediate impact on local economies.
As immigration enforcement becomes a key message for Republican candidates, the Texas Senate race is heating up. Incumbent John Cornyn and challengers Ken Paxton and Wesley Hunt are backing aggressive actions by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), emphasizing enforcement over reform. This shift aims to energize their conservative base, despite concerns it may alienate broader voter demographics.
Federal data reveals a notable trend: Border Patrol encounters have drastically decreased, with many migrants quickly turned back or subjected to expedited removal. This decline has shifted the focus of Republican candidates toward inland enforcement measures, as ICE apprehensions have surged by 132% nationwide from January to October 2025 compared to the previous year.
The heightened visibility of ICE operations is proving contentious. Critics, including Democrats and immigration advocates, argue that these aggressive tactics strain local communities and economies. In contrast, Republicans assert that strong enforcement is necessary for restoring order. Paxton has solidified Texas’ cooperation with Trump’s immigration directives, touting a recent raid that led to the detention of 50 individuals illegally in the state.
Cornyn, facing critiques from within his party, recently hosted Senate colleagues at the border to stress new funding for deportations and proposed legislation to increase penalties for those assaulting law enforcement during immigration operations. His opponents have branded him as out of touch with the Trump-led enforcement agenda.
On the Democratic side, Rep. Jasmine Crockett of Dallas and Rep. James Talarico of Austin are addressing the fallout from increased enforcement, focusing on labor shortages and civil liberties concerns. Talarico criticized the current administration’s policies, linking them to the aggressive enforcement tactics of the Trump era. “That failure by Joe Biden paved the way for Donald Trump to come in with masked men in unmarked vehicles,” he stated during a recent YouTube program.
Crockett has also drawn attention for her controversial comments, likening ICE operations to “slave patrols.” Despite backlash, she defended her stance, arguing that it was meant to resonate with Latino voters and highlight the human cost of aggressive immigration enforcement.
Polling indicates a complex landscape for Texas voters. While concerns about illegal immigration persist, many Texans also recognize the economic contributions of immigrants. Amerika Garcia Grewal, who leads a border vigil honoring migrants, warned that aggressive ICE tactics could backfire on Republicans as voters consider the human toll of such enforcement.
Political analysts suggest that while immigration remains a central issue in primaries, its influence may wane in the general election. Voter attitudes are mixed, and economic concerns often overshadow strict enforcement narratives. Jeronimo Cortina, a political scientist at the University of Houston, noted the evolving dynamics of immigration politics in Texas as the race progresses.
As the Texas Senate race continues to unfold, the future of immigration policy and enforcement will be pivotal in shaping voter sentiments leading up to the elections. Expect more developments as candidates navigate these urgent and shifting discussions.
