URGENT UPDATE: The U.S. inflation report for November 2023 is about to release, but it comes amid significant disruptions due to the ongoing government shutdown. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has confirmed that the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will not be published, creating uncertainty in the market. Investors and analysts are now focusing on the November numbers, which are expected to show a slight increase in inflation.
The anticipated headline annual inflation rate for November is projected to rise to 3.1%, a marginal increase from 3.0% in September. Meanwhile, core annual inflation is expected to hold steady at 3.0%. Analysts are keenly scrutinizing the data as it will have significant implications for major central bank decisions.
Despite the absence of the October report, some CPI data may still be available, as the BLS utilizes online prices and private data sources for certain components. This may allow the agency to provide relevant October figures, even if the complete report is missing. However, the prevailing sentiment suggests that the BLS may opt for a two-month change analysis, leaving market participants to interpret the inflation landscape independently.
Economists from major financial institutions have weighed in on what to expect. Bank of America forecasts a 0.46% increase in CPI over the two months ending in November, leading to a potential decline in annual inflation rates from 3.0% in September to 2.9% in November. They attribute this to new health insurance data exerting downward pressure on inflation.
In contrast, Goldman Sachs anticipates a core CPI increase averaging 0.21% month-over-month across October and November. Their analysis indicates that tariffs on certain goods may push inflation upward, while delayed data collection could depress numbers for categories typically discounted during the holiday season.
Analysts at Barclays have expressed concerns about the reliability of this report, given the incomplete October data. They predict that core goods prices will see an uptick from a rebound in used car prices and other core goods, although the report’s accuracy may be compromised due to the sampling method, primarily reflecting price changes collected in late November.
As the market awaits the release of this crucial inflation data, all eyes will be on how these numbers impact economic policy and consumer confidence moving forward. The implications of this report extend beyond mere statistics; they have the power to influence everyday life for millions of Americans.
Stay tuned for updates as the inflation report unfolds later today, as it could reshape expectations for the economy and monetary policy in the coming months.
